This Chart Will Prove a Bellwether for the Future of the Democratic Party
Zohran Mamdani more than tripled 2021 voter turnout in a crucial demographic.
Tea leaves are an unreliable electoral strategy. And trying to read political winds of change often doesn’t feel that far off. But when those winds blow hard — like Zohran Mamdani more than tripling voter turnout amongst 18-24 year-olds — well that’s more than bluster.
It’s political alchemy.
Here at the the_slow_times, despite an awareness of bleak forecasts, my hope is to bring attention to levers of change — however slow though they may be. So when a 33 year-old political newcomer manages to turn the tables on New York City’s Democratic establishment, it just might signal one such lever: Youth voters.
Something of a white whale in Democratic circles, the youth vote has long been sought after by enterprising candidates. All too often though this cohort of new and first-time voters has proven unreliable when it comes to actually showing up. But as tensions between the electorate and our elected officials become increasingly taut, historical trends are starting to shift.
Power in Numbers
Those who have a vested interest in continuing business-as-usual fear the rising class consciousness that is rearing its head across the country.
It was hard to ignore when Elon Musk poured millions into a Wisconsin Supreme Court election. Even harder when his candidate of choice was trounced. And when the disgraced former Governor of New York, Andrew Cuomo, loses handedly in the first round of the Democratic Primary after receiving the support of the largest super PAC to ever get involved in a municipal election, it highlights an edge everyday voters still have.
It’s important though not to be naive. Money will prove instrumental in politics for the foreseeable future. But there are policies in place that are helping to shift the balance of power.
In New York City, for example, candidates receive access to public funding after the campaign raises a minimum threshold on their own. While the Cuomo campaign still managed to outspend Mamdani by something like 3:1, the city’s Matching Funds Program allowed Mamdani’s fledgling campaign a chance to really compete.
And despite being an underdog by most metrics, Mamdani’s team harnessed another advantage. They spoke directly to the number one issue for a majority of New Yorkers: the cost of living.
Cost of Living
“The phrase ‘cost of living’ should radicalize you.”
The above quote has been making its way around the internet quite a bit in recent years. It’s pithy and does a lot to capture the sentiment of many New Yorkers and Americans more broadly. Mamdani smartly centered his campaign on this fundamental issue.
An unabashed Democratic Socialist, Mamdani believes the government has a responsibility to provide for its constituents over corporations. This means creating an economy that provides a livable wage, decent housing, and access to affordable necessities like food.
Ten years ago, the word socialist was an albatross around the neck of any political hopeful. Anyone who remembers Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign at the time will remember pundits hurling it with the vitriol of a slur. But in the decade that followed we endured a global pandemic that, for all its many challenges, provided voters with a glimpse of just what is possible when a government has its back up against an actual wall. It turns out the government can provide for its people in meaningful ways like the child tax credit, extended unemployment benefits, or freezing rent — a tent pole issue of the Mamdani campaign.
With Youthful Eyes
Returning to the voter data from the mayoral primary, it’s important to keep in mind that many first-time voters were literal children during the 2021 mayoral election. (This is one reason political commentators speculate polls were unable to accurately capture their support.) Nearly all of the 18-24 year-old cohort were in high school during the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Many watched as former President Joe Biden failed to follow through on his promise to pass the torch to a new generation, as many expected. Instead, the consultant class of the Democratic Party pushed a gerontocratic rerun before it all came crumbling down on live TV a year ago this same week. The same consultant class that for years tried to tell voters how they should feel rather than listen. (As evidenced by the brutal reality check on offer after touting “Bidenomics” during 2024’s ill-fated campaign.)
But as Mamdani has been saying throughout his campaign, the time as come for the Democratic Party to shift from lecturing to listening. It might sound simple, but when your agenda is informed, not threatened, by the honest feedback of a majority of voters, it turns out that is an incredibly powerful political force. A force that money alone cannot buy.
And while we can’t sit around and wait for future generations to save us, we should be comforted by the sign that a new economic message is resonating with voters who have yet to buy into the status quo.
If the turnout on display in last week’s NYC primary can carry Mamdani through the general come November, as is expected, then Democratic hopefuls in the midterms will have little choice but to embrace the economic populism the masses are calling out for.
the_slow_times continues to espouse the need to observe and to listen; and to look beneath the surface of issues. The mainstream media has a vested interest in partnering with the consultant class. Articles such as this highlight the vital importance (and power) of an informed electorate.